AfD Scores Historic Victory in German State Election, Exit Polls Show

Preview

Germany's far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) has won a landmark victory in the state election in Saxony-Anhalt, securing 44.5% of the vote according to exit polls. The result marks the first time since World War II that a far-right party has topped a state election in Germany, dealing a crushing blow to Chancellor Friedrich Merz's Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and sending shockwaves through the country's political establishment.

BERLIN – The image circulating online is accurate: the AfD has achieved a historic victory in the Saxony-Anhalt state election, according to exit polls published by German public broadcasters ARD and ZDF .

The AfD secured between 44% and 44.5% of the vote, more than doubling its 20.8% share from the previous state election in 2021. Chancellor Friedrich Merz's CDU finished a distant second with just 17.2% to 18.5% , losing more than half of its support compared to five years ago . The Social Democratic Party (SPD) came in third with roughly 9.3%, followed by the Greens at 8.9%, the Left Party at 8.6%, and the BSW at 5.3% .

A Historic Political Earthquake

The result represents a watershed moment in modern German politics. No far-right party has controlled a German state since the end of World War II . The AfD, which was founded in 2013, has now established itself as the dominant political force in Saxony-Anhalt, a state of approximately 2.1 million people in what was formerly East Germany .

AfD lead candidate Ulrich Siegmund hailed the projected result as a "historic achievement" . "We have achieved exactly what we wanted to achieve," Siegmund said. "We have made history in this state" . AfD co-leader Alice Weidel also described the result as "historic," saying the strong showing represented a clear mandate from voters .

The result was celebrated jubilantly at the party's election night gathering in Magdeburg, where supporters waved German flags and hugged each other in triumph .

Why the AfD Won

The AfD's victory reflects deep voter dissatisfaction with the federal government and Chancellor Friedrich Merz. A poll from ARD showed that 87% of voters in the state were unhappy with the federal government . Merz, who promised to cut the AfD's support in half when he took office, has seen his personal approval rating sink to historic lows .

The AfD capitalized on several key issues:

Migration: The party campaigned heavily on a hardline anti-immigration platform. Siegmund promised a "deportation offensive" on his first day in office .

Economy: Voters expressed frustration over sluggish economic growth and the performance of Europe's largest economy .

Eastern German sentiment: The result reflects persistent frustration over the economic gap between eastern and western Germany and nostalgia for the communist era in some areas .

Marcel Fratzscher, president of the German Institute for Economic Research, told Reuters that the election result was "above all, a vote of no confidence in the federal government" .

Can the AfD Govern?

Despite its overwhelming victory, it remains unclear whether the AfD will be able to translate its electoral lead into control of the state government. Of the state parliament's 83 seats, the AfD is forecast to take 39 seats, only three short of the 42 needed to govern alone .

Ulrich Siegmund had sought an outright majority during the campaign, which would have allowed the AfD to form a government without relying on other parties . However, exit polls indicated the party fell narrowly short of that goal .

Germany's mainstream parties have maintained a political "firewall" against the AfD, refusing to cooperate with the far-right party . The CDU's state leader, Sven Schulze, who congratulated the AfD on its victory, made clear that he has no intention of forming a coalition with them .

This creates a complex situation. Forming a majority without the AfD would require all five other parties represented in parliament to work together . However, Siegmund has indicated that the AfD is now willing to engage in talks with other parties . "We will send offers of talks to all parties. Then we will see who rejects the hand we are extending," said AfD co-leader Tino Chrupalla .

International Reactions

The result has drawn attention from abroad. U.S. President Donald Trump posted a screenshot of the result on his Truth Social account without comment . Far-right leaders in other European countries have cheered the election as a mandate for change .

Chrupalla told ARD that the AfD would pressure Berlin to restore ties with Russia and change its sanctions policy . "We want to have good relations with Russia again," he said .

What the Viral Graphic Gets Right

What the Image Suggests	What Actually Happened
The AfD posted a historic state election win	Yes — the AfD won 44.5% of the vote, doubling its 2021 result
It was a victory in a German state election	Yes — the election was in Saxony-Anhalt, a state of 2.1 million people
The result is historic	Yes — this is the first time a far-right party has topped a German state election since WWII
It was a setback for Chancellor Merz	Yes — Merz's CDU lost more than half its support from the previous election

The Bottom Line

The AfD's historic victory in Saxony-Anhalt marks a seismic shift in German politics. For the first time since World War II, a far-right party is on the verge of potentially leading a state government — and at minimum, has established itself as the dominant political force in eastern Germany.

The outcome is a devastating blow to Chancellor Merz, whose party has governed Saxony-Anhalt for 24 years . It reflects profound voter dissatisfaction with the federal government on issues ranging from migration to the economy.

Whether the AfD can actually take power depends on whether it can find coalition partners — a formidable challenge given the mainstream parties' refusal to cooperate with the far right. But even if it remains in opposition, the party has sent an unmistakable message: Germany's political landscape has been fundamentally reshaped.