Lasting Peace in Ukraine 'Not Really Conceivable' While Putin Remains in Power, Says Former MI6 Chief

A former head of Britain's MI6 has delivered a stark assessment of the prospects for ending the war in Ukraine, telling an audience in London that a durable peace is "not really conceivable" as long as Vladimir Putin remains in power. John Sawers also predicted that a ceasefire deal is unlikely before spring 2027 — and that the best outcome may be a return to the "post-2014 levels of hostilities."

LONDON – The image circulating online is accurate: Sir John Sawers, who led Britain's Secret Intelligence Service (MI6) from 2009 to 2014, made the remarks on Saturday at the Financial Times Weekend Festival in London .

Speaking to a live audience, Sawers said that no agreement between Ukraine and Russia is plausible before next spring, and that a lasting peace remains "not really conceivable" while Putin remains in office . He suggested that the "best you can achieve" in the present circumstances may be a return to the "post-2014 levels of hostilities" — the period after Russia's annexation of Crimea but before the full-scale invasion of 2022 .

Sawers' comments come at a critical moment. American envoys have arrived in Moscow with what President Donald Trump has described as a "proposal to end the war" — though Trump has provided no details and given no indication of whether the Kremlin is prepared to compromise .

A Window in 2027 — If the Pain Continues

Despite his bleak assessment of a lasting peace, Sawers suggested a window for a ceasefire negotiation could open in 2027 "if the pain on both sides continues to rise" and "if the progress that the Russians had been making on the ground ... doesn't resume" .

He noted that there are "increasing voices inside Russia raising questions about the Ukraine war and Russia's need to find a way out of it" . Last month, the Kremlin fired the chief economist of one of its largest state-run financial institutions after he remarked that losses from Ukrainian strikes were "already becoming a noticeable macroeconomic barrier to Russian economic growth" .

Sawers also pointed to "disruption on a political level" in Ukraine, with figures who are "beginning to question" Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy . The Ukrainian president last month fired one of his top aides after her house was raided by anti-corruption authorities .

Echoes of Earlier MI6 Assessments

Sawers' assessment echoes comments made by his successors. In September 2025, outgoing MI6 chief Richard Moore said he saw "no evidence" that Putin had any interest in a negotiated peace short of Ukrainian capitulation .

"Putin has sought to convince the world that Russian victory is inevitable. But he lies," Moore said at the time. "He lies to the world. He lies to his people. Perhaps he even lies to himself" .

Moore also warned that Putin had "bitten off more than he can chew" and was "mortgaging his country's future for his own personal legacy and a distorted version of history" .

Putin's Demands Remain 'Outlandish'

Sawers was cautiously positive about the U.S. engagement with Moscow, calling it "good that the Americans are reaching out and engaging with Putin" . But he was quick to add: "not that I have much faith in their envoys" .

"Putin's demands are outlandish and they stay that way," Sawers said .

His assessment aligns with the view of many analysts who argue that a real peace agreement is currently impossible because Putin is not prepared to compromise . Some experts have also noted that Russia is effectively "imitating" diplomacy while continuing to put forward unacceptable conditions . A potential meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin currently remains unrealistic due to the fundamentally different positions of the parties .

The Bottom Line

The image captures a real and significant assessment from a former head of British intelligence: that a lasting peace in Ukraine is not achievable while Putin remains in power. Sawers' comments reflect the deep pessimism in Western intelligence circles about the prospects for a negotiated settlement — and the belief that the war may continue for years, with the best possible outcome being a frozen conflict rather than a durable peace.

For now, the war continues. American envoys are in Moscow, but Putin's demands remain "outlandish." And as Sawers put it, a return to the "post-2014 levels of hostilities" may be the most realistic outcome.