New Poll Shows Bruce Blakeman Within Striking Distance of Kathy Hochul in New York Governor's Race

NEW YORK — With less than two months until Election Day, a new poll has sent shockwaves through New York's gubernatorial race, showing Republican Bruce Blakeman within four points of unseating Democratic incumbent Gov. Kathy Hochul .

The survey, conducted by McLaughlin & Associates for the Blakeman campaign between August 27–31, found Hochul leading 49.6% to 45.7% among 800 likely voters — with 4.7% still undecided . The results suggest a dramatically tightening contest in a state that hasn't elected a Republican governor since George Pataki in 2002.

"More than half of voters (55%) don't have a favorable view of the governor," pollster John McLaughlin noted in a memo accompanying the results. "The majority of voters (56%) believe that it's time to give someone else a chance to do better" .

A Tale of Two Polls

The Blakeman campaign's internal poll paints a far rosier picture for the Republican than independent surveys have shown. A Siena College poll released in August found Hochul leading by 10 points — 49% to 39% — among likely voters .

That Siena poll represented a significant shift from June, when Hochul led by 20 points among registered voters, indicating the race is indeed tightening . At this point in 2022, Hochul led Republican Lee Zeldin by 14 points — only to win by a narrow 6-point margin in the final election .

Blakeman's campaign has dismissed the Siena numbers. "All of the polls we have seen in the last two months have us virtually tied with Kathy Hochul. This poll is always off and continues to be off," Blakeman said in a statement. "Kathy Hochul is desperate for people to believe that she is way ahead when she knows that her high taxes, soaring electric bills, and increased crime have made her the worst governor in America" .

The Geography of a Potential Upset

The polling reveals a classic New York electoral divide. Hochul dominates in deep-blue New York City, leading Blakeman 60% to 33% according to the McLaughlin survey . But Blakeman leads by 5 points upstate and by 10 points in the suburbs .

The Siena poll similarly found Hochul with a commanding 64% to 19% lead in the city, while Blakeman leads by 8 points in the suburbs, with the candidates running virtually even upstate .

For Blakeman to pull off an upset, he would need massive turnout in the suburbs and upstate to overcome Hochul's enormous advantage in New York City — or find a way to cut into her lead in the five boroughs .

The Trump Factor

The polling memo notably omits mention of President Donald Trump, a Blakeman ally who is deeply unpopular in New York. In the recent Siena poll, 60% of voters disapproved of Trump's job performance while only 37% approved .

The Hochul campaign and the state Democratic Party are spending millions of dollars on ads seeking to tie Blakeman to Trump, who has heartily endorsed the Republican nominee . Hochul Campaign Spokesperson Ryan Radulovacki said: "The difference in this race is crystal clear: Governor Hochul has put money back in New Yorkers' pockets at every opportunity, invested billions in public safety, and stood up against Donald Trump's endless attacks on this state — 'MAGA all the way' Bruce Blakeman, who's literally campaigning with Trump himself, jacked up property taxes and let violent crime spike to decade highs on his watch" .

Voter Sentiment and Key Issues

Despite Hochul's lead in the polls, voters express significant dissatisfaction with the direction of the state. More than half of voters have an unfavorable view of the governor, and 56% believe it's time to give someone else a chance .

However, voters still trust Hochul more on key policy issues. According to the Siena poll, likely voters believe Hochul would do a better job on making prices more affordable (48% to 41%), increasing the supply of affordable housing (51% to 35%), and developing New York's energy future (47% to 42%) . Voters are nearly split on who would do a better job keeping New Yorkers safe and addressing undocumented immigrants .

On personal character traits, Blakeman actually outshines Hochul. Voters rated him as "tough" by a 25-point margin, and he also scored higher on honesty and getting things done .

Recognition and Resources

Blakeman faces a significant recognition gap. Nearly a third of likely voters (30%) admit they have either never heard of him or don't have an opinion on him . In the Siena poll, 40% of voters still don't know enough about him to form an opinion .

The financial disparity between the two campaigns is also stark. Hochul's campaign reported $21 million on hand in July, while the state Democratic Party had an additional $22 million. Blakeman's campaign and allied GOP groups have raised approximately $11 million, though outside pro-Blakeman Super PACs are now spending to support him .

What the Graphic Shows | What Happened

|---|---|
| "A new poll shows Republican Bruce Blakeman is within 4 percentage points of Democrat Gov. Kathy Hochul" | Confirmed — the McLaughlin & Associates poll conducted for Blakeman's campaign shows Hochul leading 49.6% to 45.7%  |
| The poll was conducted in late August 2026 | Confirmed — the survey took place August 27–31  |
| Other polls show a wider Hochul lead | Confirmed — a Siena College poll from August shows Hochul up 10 points  |
| The election is November 3, 2026 | Confirmed — voters will cast their ballots on November 3  |

As New York's gubernatorial race enters its final stretch, the divergence between internal and independent polling leaves political observers guessing. One thing is certain: Hochul's campaign cannot afford to be complacent, and Blakeman's team sees an opportunity to replicate Zeldin's near-upset of 2022.

"The Worst Governor in America is on the ropes, and New Yorkers have had enough," Blakeman said. "This November, they're going to fire Kathy Hochul and elect me to make New York affordable again" .