Trump Said Oil Would “Drop Like a Rock” — Instead, Prices Are Still Above $100

President Donald Trump predicts Americans will see dramatically cheaper oil once the Iran war ends, but renewed supply disruptions are keeping crude and gasoline expensive while inflation remains elevated.

WASHINGTON, Sept. 16, 2026 — President Donald Trump has repeatedly predicted a dramatic decline in oil prices once the war with Iran ends, but energy markets are currently moving in the opposite direction.

Trump recently argued that elevated oil prices are temporary and would “drop like a rock” once military operations involving Iran conclude, while blaming broader consumer-price increases on the Biden administration.

The president has also acknowledged that the Iran conflict itself is responsible for much of the recent energy-price surge, creating growing political pressure as Republicans approach November’s congressional elections.

Only last week, Trump offered a more cautious timeline, saying oil prices probably would not fall significantly until after the November 3 midterm elections because fighting with Iran remained unresolved.

 

 

International oil markets are not yet confirming Trump’s prediction. Brent crude climbed to roughly $108 per barrel this week as new disruptions heightened concerns about global supplies.

The latest pressure followed the shutdown of Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline, adding another supply concern while diplomatic efforts surrounding the Middle East conflict have struggled to produce a durable breakthrough.

That represents a substantial change from conditions before the Iran conflict. Brent crossed $100 again last week as escalating attacks disrupted production, transportation and petroleum movements across the region.

American drivers are seeing the consequences. When Trump discussed the issue September 9, the national gasoline average had reached approximately $4.22 per gallon, according to reporting by the Associated Press.

Diesel and jet-fuel costs have also increased sharply, expanding the economic impact beyond motorists because transportation expenses influence trucking, agriculture, airlines, manufacturing and ultimately consumer prices.

 

 

The latest government inflation report illustrates that pressure. Overall consumer prices increased 0.4% in August after rising 0.1% during July, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported.

Compared with August 2025, consumer prices were 3.4% higher, meaning inflation remains positive even though price movements vary substantially among individual categories of goods and services.

Energy was one of the clearest trouble spots. The government’s energy index increased 16.3% over 12 months, reflecting the economic consequences of the continuing Middle East conflict and supply disruptions.

Gasoline prices were even more striking, increasing 27.4% from one year earlier. Gasoline also rose 3.9% during August alone and accounted for more than one-third of monthly inflation.

Food prices present a more moderate picture. Grocery prices were unchanged during August but remained 2.2% higher than one year earlier, while restaurant and other food-away-from-home prices increased 3.4%.

Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, provides some evidence of easing underlying pressure. It increased 2.4% over 12 months, down from the 2.5% annual rate recorded in July.

Those figures make Trump’s broader statement that prices are “coming down sharply” difficult to apply across the entire economy. Some categories have declined, while the overall consumer-price index continues increasing.

The president’s prediction about oil is different because it concerns what could happen after hostilities end. A settlement restoring reliable Middle Eastern supplies could put significant downward pressure on crude prices.

However, oil prices depend on more than the war itself. Global demand, OPEC+ production, inventories, refinery capacity, shipping disruptions and damaged energy infrastructure could influence how rapidly prices decline afterward.

Trump himself acknowledged that uncertainty September 9, saying prices could remain elevated beyond the midterms even while predicting they would eventually tumble once conditions surrounding Iran changed.

The administration has also tapped strategic petroleum reserves as disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz reduced normal oil movements through one of the world’s most important energy transportation corridors.

For Republicans, the timing is politically significant. Elevated gasoline prices are highly visible to voters and arrive just as Trump is campaigning aggressively to preserve Republican control of the House and Senate.

The president argues his military strategy prevented Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon and says the economic disruption caused by the conflict will prove temporary once military operations finally conclude.

Iran has maintained that its nuclear program has peaceful purposes, while the prolonged conflict and continuing attacks have made predicting either the war’s conclusion or subsequent energy-market response particularly difficult.

Trump’s claim that Biden bears responsibility for today’s broader price level also requires context. Prices rose substantially during Biden’s presidency, but current inflation measures price changes occurring now rather than assigning them to one administration.

Presidents can influence inflation through taxes, tariffs, spending, regulation and energy policy, but monetary policy, wars, supply disruptions, global commodity markets and private-sector conditions also affect consumer prices.

For households, those distinctions may matter less than the number displayed outside a gasoline station. Energy costs remain substantially above year-earlier levels, making Trump’s promise of dramatically cheaper oil especially consequential.

For now, the market is delivering a clear answer: oil has not “dropped like a rock.” Brent remains above $100, while gasoline inflation remains exceptionally high compared with last year.

Whether Trump’s prediction eventually proves correct will depend heavily on how and when the Iran conflict ends — and whether global energy supplies can normalize quickly afterward.