U.S. Net Migration Turns Negative Under Trump? The Viral Claim Is Based on New Data — but There’s a Major Caveat

A graphic circulating from The Western Journal claims that the United States has experienced negative net migration for the first time in nearly 100 years, attributing the shift to President Donald Trump’s immigration crackdown.

There is a real and significant demographic story behind the graphic. But the wording makes the evidence sound more definitive than it is.

A new analysis of federal survey data estimates that the foreign-born population fell by 2.9 million between January 2025 and July 2026. That decline is large enough, according to the researchers behind the analysis, to indicate that net migration has turned negative.

However, the U.S. Census Bureau has not yet published an official population estimate showing negative net international migration for that period. In its latest completed annual estimate, net international migration remained positive at 1.3 million through June 2025. The Census Bureau said at the time that it was trending toward negative territory, while projecting roughly 321,000 for the following year if the trend continued.

And another major federal source, the Congressional Budget Office, estimates that total net immigration was still positive at about 410,000 in 2025.

So the most accurate verdict is: the underlying trend is real, but the headline is presented too definitively.

What the viral graphic is claiming

The graphic features Trump against an American flag and states:

“US SEES NEGATIVE NET MIGRATION FOR FIRST TIME IN NEARLY 100 YEARS AMID TRUMP'S BORDER CRACKDOWN.”

The image appears to be based on a Sept. 3 report from the Center for Immigration Studies (CIS), which examined the government's monthly Current Population Survey.

CIS found that the estimated foreign-born population declined by 2.9 million from January 2025 through July 2026. The category includes considerably more than undocumented immigrants: it encompasses naturalized citizens, lawful permanent residents, temporary migrants and unauthorized immigrants.

CIS estimates that approximately 2.3 million of the decline could represent a reduction in the unauthorized immigrant population, taking its estimate from 15.8 million in January 2025 to 13.5 million in July 2026. The organization stresses that this is a preliminary estimate.

The analysis also found that the foreign-born decline followed an 8.3 million increase during the preceding four years, during the post-COVID immigration surge.

That is the factual foundation for the graphic.

The border crackdown is real

There is little dispute that immigration flows changed dramatically after Trump returned to office.

The administration ended several Biden-era programs and adopted much more restrictive border policies. U.S. Customs and Border Protection reported that Border Patrol apprehensions between ports of entry on the southwest border fell sharply during the first months of 2025.

For example, CBP reported 8,725 Border Patrol encounters in May 2025, down 93% from May 2024.

CBP also reported that apprehensions during the final 11 days of January 2025 were down 85% from the comparable period in 2024.

Those figures demonstrate a dramatic reduction in attempted unauthorized crossings.

But border apprehensions are not the same thing as net international migration.

Net migration is broader. It involves people entering the country, people leaving it, legal and unauthorized migration, and other categories of international movement.

That distinction matters enormously when assessing the viral claim.

Census data tells a more cautious story

The U.S. Census Bureau released its Vintage 2025 population estimates in January 2026.

Those estimates showed that net international migration had fallen from 2.7 million in 2024 to 1.3 million between July 2024 and June 2025 — a decline of 53.8%.

The Census Bureau called the decline historic.

It also projected that net international migration could fall to approximately 321,000 by July 2026 if the trend continued.

Importantly, Census explained that the 2025 estimate covers July 1, 2024, through June 30, 2025. That means it includes months before Trump took office as well as the first several months of his administration.

So the official Census estimate available at the time did not show negative net international migration.

It showed a rapid movement toward it.

U.S. Census Bureau: New Population Estimates Show Historic Decline in Net International Migration

A separate estimate says 2025 actually went negative

The case for the Western Journal headline becomes stronger when looking at independent demographic research.

A team of economists from Brookings and the American Enterprise Institute estimated in January that net migration during calendar year 2025 was between -10,000 and -295,000. They described that as the first negative year in at least half a century.

Their estimate incorporated the sharp fall in new arrivals along with increased removals and voluntary departures.

The researchers also expected net migration to remain very low or negative in 2026.

That provides substantial support for the broader claim that America has entered an unprecedented period of extremely low — and potentially negative — net migration.

But it is still an estimate, rather than a finalized government population count.

Then there's the Congressional Budget Office

The picture becomes more complicated when looking at the Congressional Budget Office.

CBO's latest demographic outlook estimates that total net immigration was about 410,000 in 2025.

That figure is positive, not negative.

However, CBO also found something important that helps explain why the situation is changing so rapidly: the category it calls “other foreign nationals” — which includes many people who entered illegally, were paroled into the country or overstayed temporary status — experienced negative net immigration of approximately 360,000 in 2025.

In other words, one major component of U.S. immigration was already experiencing a net outflow.

Other categories, particularly lawful permanent residents and people eligible for permanent status, kept total net immigration positive.

This is one reason seemingly contradictory headlines can emerge from different datasets.

Congressional Budget Office: The Demographic Outlook, 2026 to 2056

Why the “nearly 100 years” wording matters

The historical portion of the claim is not simply invented.

The last well-documented period when net migration to the United States was negative was the Great Depression era.

PBS notes that the 1930s were the only decade for which historical data showed negative net migration to the United States, with more people leaving than entering.

The economic collapse played a major role. Immigration fell sharply, while hundreds of thousands of Mexicans and Mexican Americans returned to Mexico or were forcibly repatriated.

So if current estimates ultimately establish that U.S. net international migration became negative in 2025 or 2026, describing it as the first such episode since the 1930s — roughly nine decades ago — is historically defensible.

The problem is that the exact timing and magnitude are not yet settled by the official population estimates.

The biggest problem: the data source

The newest 2.9-million figure comes from the Current Population Survey (CPS).

The CPS is a major federal survey conducted by the Census Bureau for the Bureau of Labor Statistics and is best known for producing the monthly employment and unemployment statistics.

But experts have repeatedly warned against treating short-term changes in its foreign-born population estimates as a precise measure of actual immigration and emigration.

Economist Jed Kolko, writing about an earlier 2025 decline in the CPS foreign-born population, argued that the survey's sampling, weighting and annual population adjustments make its foreign-born population levels unsuitable for tracking actual population changes over short periods.

The Census Bureau itself has acknowledged the problem.

In explaining its own migration methodology, Census noted that changes in the CPS foreign-born population can reflect actual emigration, survey nonresponse, coverage error and population controls.

That caveat is particularly important now because immigrants may be less willing to participate in government surveys amid an aggressive immigration-enforcement environment.

Even CIS acknowledges this possibility, saying some of the decline could reflect immigrants becoming less willing to respond to the survey rather than actually leaving the United States.

That does not prove the 2.9-million decline is wrong.

It means the number should not automatically be interpreted as 2.9 million people physically leaving America.

What the viral graphic gets right — and what it leaves out

What it gets right

The immigration reversal is real.
Multiple sources show an extraordinary decline in immigration since the 2021–2024 surge. Census measured a 53.8% drop in net international migration between 2024 and 2025.

Trump's policies coincided with the change.
The administration dramatically tightened the southern border, curtailed humanitarian entry programs and increased immigration enforcement. Border encounters subsequently fell to historically low levels.

Independent researchers have estimated negative net migration.
The Brookings/AEI team estimated that calendar-year 2025 net migration fell somewhere between -10,000 and -295,000.

A negative year would represent a historic reversal.
The 1930s were the last period associated with negative U.S. net migration in the historical record cited by PBS and other researchers.

What it leaves out

There is not yet one universally accepted official number proving a 2.9-million net outflow.

The 2.9 million figure is a decline in the CPS-estimated foreign-born population, not a direct headcount of people who left the country.

Naturalized U.S. citizens and lawful immigrants are included in the foreign-born category.

CBO's latest estimate still puts total 2025 net immigration in positive territory, at roughly 410,000.

And the graphic gives no indication that the 2.9-million figure comes from a nongovernmental analysis of a government survey, rather than from a finalized Census population estimate.

The demographic stakes could be substantial

The change matters beyond immigration politics.

The Census Bureau says international migration has become an increasingly important component of U.S. population growth as the difference between births and deaths has diminished. In 2025, natural increase was about 519,000, while net international migration was still approximately 1.3 million under the Census measure.

That means a sustained period of zero or negative migration would have consequences for overall population growth.

It could also affect the labor force.

Brookings researchers warn that reduced migration can dampen labor-force growth, consumer spending and GDP growth.

The Census Bureau similarly notes that some states have become increasingly dependent on international migration to maintain population growth.

That creates a paradox at the center of the debate: policies designed to reduce immigration can succeed at reducing population inflows while simultaneously creating a demographic and economic challenge if the decline becomes large and persistent.

The bottom line

Verdict: Partly true, but overstated.

The viral graphic is built around a genuine and historically significant development: U.S. immigration has fallen dramatically since the 2021–2024 surge, and several respected analyses indicate that net migration may have turned negative during 2025 or afterward.

The Trump administration's border and immigration policies are an important part of the explanation for the collapse in new arrivals, while increased removals and voluntary departures have also contributed.

But saying flatly that “the U.S. sees negative net migration” treats an evolving estimate as a settled official statistic.

The strongest current evidence is more nuanced:

• Census: net international migration was still positive at 1.3 million through June 2025 but was falling rapidly.
• Brookings/AEI: estimated calendar-year 2025 net migration was between -10,000 and -295,000.
• CBO: estimated total net immigration at about +410,000 in 2025, while a major category of foreign nationals experienced a net outflow.
• CIS: found the CPS-estimated foreign-born population down 2.9 million from January 2025 to July 2026, but acknowledged that survey effects could account for part of the decline.

So the better headline is not “America definitively just recorded its first negative net migration in nearly 100 years.”

It is:

New estimates suggest U.S. net migration may have turned negative after Trump's immigration crackdown, in a demographic reversal not seen since the Great Depression era.

That distinction is important — and it is exactly the nuance missing from the viral graphic.