White House Touts 96% Drop in Legal Immigration From Muslim-Majority Nations — What the Number Actually Measures

The White House is highlighting a dramatic statistic on legal immigration from Muslim-majority countries, claiming that admissions have fallen by 96 percent since late 2024. The underlying figure comes from a Cato Institute analysis of State Department data.

 

 

 

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The statistic is based on monthly immigrant visa issuances and permanent lawful refugee admissions involving nationals of 45 countries classified by Cato as majority-Muslim. It does not represent every form of legal immigration.

According to Cato's analysis, the combined monthly figure fell from 21,096 in December 2024 to 808 in February 2026. That calculation produces a decline of roughly 96 percent.

The distinction is important because the phrase “legal immigration” can encompass many categories. The Cato calculation specifically combines immigrant visas with permanent refugee admissions, rather than measuring every person legally entering the United States.

 

 

 

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The data also concern nationality, not individual religion. A person from a Muslim-majority country is not necessarily Muslim. Cato notes that among refugees from those 45 countries between 2002 and 2024, about 28 percent were identified as non-Muslim.

The drop was not limited to refugees. Cato calculated that immigrant visa issuances alone declined about 95 percent during the period examined. Refugee admissions from the 45 countries fell from 5,157 in December 2024 to zero in February 2026.

Afghanistan experienced one of the sharpest changes. Combined monthly immigrant visa issuances and refugee admissions fell from 5,563 in December 2024 to just nine in February 2026, according to the analysis.

Pakistan also recorded a substantial reduction, while Cato reported that Qatar, Indonesia and the United Arab Emirates were the only three countries in the group where admissions increased during the period studied.

 

 

 

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The decline was considerably larger than the reduction for other countries. Cato calculated that comparable legal immigration from countries outside the majority-Muslim group fell about 36 percent between December 2024 and February 2026.

Several Trump administration policies contributed to the broader reduction in legal immigration. Among them were refugee restrictions, expanded country-based entry restrictions and changes to immigrant-visa processing.

In January 2026, the State Department announced a pause on immigrant visa issuance for nationals of 75 countries. The department said the policy was intended to review whether applicants might become financially dependent on U.S. public benefits.

That January visa pause did not cover tourist or other nonimmigrant visas. More importantly, the State Department later said the 75-country pause was no longer in effect as of August 21, 2026, following a federal court order.

 

 

 

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The administration also expanded country-specific entry restrictions during Trump's second term. Those restrictions affected both immigrant and, in some cases, nonimmigrant categories depending on the country and proclamation.

Cato's analysis says 34 of the 45 majority-Muslim countries were specifically affected by either an entry ban or the broader visa suspension policies it examined. The organization attributes the overall decline to several overlapping immigration measures.

The political interpretation of the numbers is sharply divided. The White House's Rapid Response 47 account presented the 96 percent decline as a major result of the administration's immigration policies, while immigration advocates have criticized the restrictions and their effects.

 

 

 

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Cato itself has long advocated for less restrictive immigration policies, so its analysis should be understood as an assessment produced by an organization with a documented policy perspective. At the same time, the underlying calculations use State Department data.

There is also an important timing issue. The 96 percent figure compares December 2024 with February 2026. It should not be interpreted as a measurement of immigration levels in October 2026, because the analysis cited by the White House does not provide a later comparable figure.

The number therefore does document a major change in the specific categories and countries examined. It does not establish that immigration from every Muslim-majority country has stopped, nor does it mean that Muslims as a religious population have been barred from the United States.

 

 

 

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The image's central statistic is therefore based on a real analysis, but its wording leaves out several important qualifications. The 96 percent figure refers to a specific State Department dataset, 45 majority-Muslim countries, and the period from December 2024 through February 2026.

The broader significance of the figure depends on how the immigration policies behind it are evaluated, including questions about national security, refugee admissions, family reunification, economic effects and the legal challenges surrounding some restrictions.